The quote came from a book on game theory. The chapter is about explosive
growth, which was used to pave the way for the next chapter on sharing
resources. I personnally can't validate (or invalidate) the quote, but the
book is published by Princeton University, who's library includes Albert
Einstein's "The Meaning of Relativity" and J. Robert Oppenheimer's "Atom and
Void". These folks don't seem like the kind of people would just throw
something like that out in the world with out being able to back it up.
Their Ivy League reputation is on the line.
>In 2040 we will
>have lots, but hardly infinite people, even on paper.
The math says "_If_ growth continues at _current_ rates, there will be an
infinite number of people in 2040." My point was there are not enough
resources to support this kind of growth. Long before we have infinite
people, resource shortages will produce war and famine on a massive scale.
I believe we're already beginning to see the effects of these shoratges
today.
Thanks,
Dave Leeper
dleeper@sybase.com
"Semi-Witty Sig Line (SWSL)" - Dave Leeper
----------
/I do agree with you on this point though. Here's the scope on the real
/situation: Currently, the world's population is growing at a hyperbolic
/rate (for those of you reading this who don't know what hyperbolic means,
/its basically exponentialally exponential. There's where all the starving
/people are coming from. If the growth in world population continues at
/current levels, we will have an infinite number of human beings by the year
/2040. (Source: "Laws of the Game" by Manfred Eigen & Ruthild Winkler.
Eh. I've seen this before on the net -- not sure if it was Vinge
screwing up or some support posting on the Singularity, hopefully the
latter. Human growth is usually modeled as an exponential curve, not
hyperbolic; I haven't seen any reference besides this one that claim a
hyperbolic function is involved. (I admit I haven't seen hyperbolic
curves used that way anywhere else, for that matter.) A simple
exponential curve is also conceptually more plausible, being the usual
result for growth depending on the current population. In 2040 we will
have lots, but hardly infinite people, even on paper.
Slainte,
-xx- Damien R. Sullivan X-) <*> http://www.ugcs.caltech.edu/~phoenix
"I can see that you have a lot to unlearn."
-"If you are talking about my vulgar instinct for survival, forget it."